Gold proved to be the standout in 2024, in a year that was otherwise underwhelming for the resources sector.

The price of gold broke through the US$2,000 per ounce mark in March and continued to rise throughout the year. Whilst gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, geopolitical uncertainty likely played a significant role in driving demand.

Gold 2024 Price History Chart

Although there were fewer resources IPOs in 2024, consolidation was prominent, as evidenced by gold producer Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), which made a $5 billion bid for De Grey Mining Limited (ASX: DEG) in early December.

Iron ore remained relatively stable during the year, consistently staying above US$100 a tonne. This stability benefited the major producers, as did some rationalisation of costs.

On the downside, lithium did not perform as strongly as past years, which may have had a knock-on effect on other battery metals, such as nickel. Lithium prices fell by nearly 70% during the year, and nickel dropped from highs of US$20,000 to below the US$16,000 per metric tonne, leading to the closure of some nickel mines.

The availability of drill rigs is often a good indicator of new mining activity. Just 18 months ago, securing a drill rig was very challenging. However, explorers now report the opposite, with some rig operators actively seeking new contracts.

It’s been a challenging year for IPOs in all sectors. Whilst resources had the highest number of IPOs of any sector, it was still down in 2024 with just 13 IPOs compared to 24 resources IPOs in 2023.

Although inflation has eased over the year, interest rates remain high, and this trend may continue into 2025. The 10-year bond rate – a reliable indicator of future interest rates – remains stubbornly above 4%.

Looking ahead, geopolitical uncertainty is likely to influence the resources sector in 2025. We therefore should expect to see gold prices to hold steady or possibly rise and hit US$3,000 an ounce.

Uranium may also emerge as a surprise outperformer. Although uranium is an opaque market, with most trades via long-term contracts, producers are reporting solid price gains. If prices continue to improve and some of the stigma surrounding nuclear power is dispelled, there could be potential for uranium IPOs in late 2025 or into 2026 and 2027.

Lithium Carbonate 2024 Price History Chart

Growing geopolitical tensions have also sparked increased interest in ‘defence metals’ like antimony.

These minerals are critical for military and defence applications, and concerns over supply chain disruptions have heightened the focus on developing domestic sources.

In November, the price of antimony hit a new record of US$33,000 a tonne following China’s ban on shipments to the US. With the potential for a trade war between the US and China, countries like Australia will be pushing to secure their own supplies of these strategic metals. This could drive further investment and exploration activity in 2025.

This article was first published in the 2025 IPO Watch Australia Report.